John Michael Greer  wonders whether the Transition Town Movement is engaging in "premature triumphalism." As a part of the initiating group in Transition Town Montpelier, which on Tuesday received official recognition from the international transition folks, I doubt it.

We're happy if people even notice what we're up to.

Luckily, there's a chance Monday for everyone in the central Vermont area to find out more about Transition Towns and judge for themselves. Naresh Giangrande, co-founder of the first Transition Town, Totnes in the UK, will speak on “Transition Towns: From Oil Dependency to Resilient Communities.” The talk is Monday, November 24, 7 pm. Unitarian Church, Main Street, Montpelier. We're being contacted by people as far away as Maine and Massachusetts who want to hear the talk, so come early!

Greer provides a nice summary of the Transition Town movement:

There's a thought-provoking article in Sunday's Boston Globe (via Matt Yglesias) on how a 21st century US depression would look different from the 1930s depression. The author, Drake Bennett, makes the case that the US is so different now that the depression would look different in fundamental ways. Healthcare costs more than it did in the 1930s, relative to food, for example, so there'd be lines outside of emergency rooms rather than at soup kitchens (though he acknowledges that soup kitchens are already being visited by more people).

Drake is open to the view that people will raise more of their own food, growing gardens on lawns and keeping chickens in the backyard. I don't agree with his argument that farmers in New England will do poorly, though:

At the high end of the market, specialty and organic foods - which drove the success of chains like Whole Foods - would seem pointlessly expensive; the booming organic food movement could suffer as people start to see specially grown produce as more of a luxury than a moral choice. New England's surviving farmers would be particularly hard-hit, as demand for their seasonal, relatively high-cost products dried up.

To the extent that there is a price premium on New England agricultural products, I think it's due to high costs of labor compared to energy, subsidies to industrial-scale agriculture, and niche marketing. A depression, together with peak oil, would change the ratio of labor to energy costs. Subsidies to industrial-scale agriculture can be changed. And niche marketing of premium products--well, that might not become more widespread, at least. Hard to say whether the market for premium New England food will wither or whether the wealthy will switch from caviar to camembert produced in Vermont.

In Vermont we're seeing a stronger and more sophisticated push for policies that support local businesses, including farmers. Michael Shuman's talk yesterday in the Statehouse was a good example.

(I first examined the falling price of oil in August. The price of oil has dropped further, so it's time for another look.)

Someone told me with relief recently that gasoline is $2.99 a gallon. I was reminded of an editorial cartoon in late 2005 or early 2006, showing someone filling up before and after hurricane Katrina. In both pictures, a guy holding a gas nozzle is looking at the pump and exclaiming, "Gas is $2.50 a gallon!" Before Katrina, he has a look of outrage on his face. After Katrina, he wears a broad grin.

Lower gas prices aren't enough to produce many broad grins these days, against the current economic turmoil and the widespread predictions that the economic downturn is likely to get worse and last years. Still, the drop in oil prices is reinforcing some people's beliefs that oil price rises were a speculative bubble.

As with bubbles, the price of oil has gone up and then back down, though only back down a bit. It looks to me like supply and demand are sufficient to explain the price fluctuations.

First, let's look at the big picture: The price of oil is still high.

I'm often baffled by the correlations that business writers point to between daily events and barometers like oil prices and the stock market. As Nassin Nicholas Taleb points out in The Black Swan, we really don't know what causes these hour-to-hour or day-to-day gyrations. No controlled experiment is possible to test any theory.

For example, the New York Times' lede this morning is: "The major stock exchanges in New York followed Europe and Asia higher Monday, inspired by government efforts to reassure investors."

So, with that in mind, let me craft my own unfalsifiable take on today's financial news:

Markets rallied Monday morning on the news that Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman won the Swedish National Bank's economics prize in memory of Alfred Nobel.  The selection of Krugman, who has been harshly critical of the Bush Administration's illegal activities and unwise economic policies, is seen by the markets as pressure on the US government to fully respect citizens' Constitutional rights and provide universal health care, policies Krugman has advocated.

Alas, though Krugman was selected for the economics prize for his work in international trade, I don't recall anything in his columns that shows much interest in the advantages or disadvantages of relocalization.

I have, however, appreciated his willingness to actually apply economic theory (instead of the more common hand waving) to understand the role of supply and demand vs. speculation in the most recent phase of the ten-year rise in oil prices. Some of his blog posts helped guide my thinking in a column I wrote on the subject.

Two weeks ago, I described on a syndicated weekly radio commentary, Peak Oil Check-In, a situation that wasn't getting much play in the national media: regional shortages of gasoline and other refined products in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike. This last week, the national media paid some attention, even though the larger story of the meltdown of the US financial sector is (rightfully) dominating headlines.

Pat Murphy, producer of the much-admired video, The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, will be on the air with me tomorrow, Wednesday, on Equal Time Radio on WDEV (96.1/96.5 FM, 550 AM) Waterbury-Montpelier, 1:05 - 2:00 pm.

We'll be talking about his new book, Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change. From the book's description:

Plan C explores the risks inherent in trying to continue our energy-intensive lifestyle. Using dirtier fossil fuels (Plan A) or switching to renewable energy sources (Plan B) allows people to remain complacent in the face of potential global catastrophe. Dramatic lifestyle change is the only way to begin to create a sustainable, equitable world.

Also joining us will be State Senator Ginny Lyons, chair of the Natural Resources and Energy Committee, to talk about what Plan C might look like in Vermont. And at the beginning of the show, if all goes well, I'll describe what it was like to ride from Montpelier to Waterbury on an electric bicycle.

Please consider tuning in at 1:05 pm tomorrow!

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
-- Dr. Albert Bartlett

April 18, 1775, Dijon, France

An angry mob gathered outside the shop of a wealthy miller suspected of mixing bean flour with wheat flour to cut costs.  The miller was assaulted and his house and mill plundered for flour, then burned to the ground.  In the weeks that followed, similar scenes followed at bakeries and mills throughout France.  Everywhere, people were angry about the same things: flour was too expensive, often of poor quality, and bread, priced at 14 sous nationwide, was unaffordable to many.

World oil production has been on a plateau for the last several years. Is that a temporary leveling off, a geologically imposed peak before long-term decline, or something called "peak oil lite"? The theory of peak oil lite is that human-based reasons, not geological reasons, are creating at least a temporary peak in oil production.

The thing is, it's pretty hard to tell peak oil lite from geological peak oil. When the world nears or reaches geological peak oil, it unleashes human forces that keep production down.

For example, Iran and Venezuela have both said recently that they think OPEC should commit to reducing output at their meeting on September 9, since oil prices are going down. Yes, they're saying that the price of oil is too low!

Because oil production is so tight elsewhere, OPEC has real power to jack prices back up. OPEC's power to raise oil prices is strongest at the time of regional or world peak oil.

Read and view this book at Amazon.com.