John Michael Greer  wonders whether the Transition Town Movement is engaging in "premature triumphalism." As a part of the initiating group in Transition Town Montpelier, which on Tuesday received official recognition from the international transition folks, I doubt it.

We're happy if people even notice what we're up to.

Luckily, there's a chance Monday for everyone in the central Vermont area to find out more about Transition Towns and judge for themselves. Naresh Giangrande, co-founder of the first Transition Town, Totnes in the UK, will speak on “Transition Towns: From Oil Dependency to Resilient Communities.” The talk is Monday, November 24, 7 pm. Unitarian Church, Main Street, Montpelier. We're being contacted by people as far away as Maine and Massachusetts who want to hear the talk, so come early!

Greer provides a nice summary of the Transition Town movement:

Those of us who follow the details of monthly or weekly oil data reports have long been awaiting the International Energy Agency's 2008 edition of their annual World Energy Outlook. The IEA has long been a cockeyed optimist about future oil availability, along with the US Energy Information Administration. But the IEA has been indicating since this summer that they were revising their future projections of oil availability downward. Would the new report constitute a recognition of imminent peak oil from a Very Official Institution?

The new report came out today.

You can read the slides (PDF) for the presentation to the press or the executive summary (PDF) for free. The full report costs €120 in PDF format. 

Fortunately, the good analysts over at TheOilDrum.com are on the case, with a series of articles over the next couple weeks. Nate Hagens kicked off the series today, with an overview.

The nickel version: The report has a Jekyll-and-Hyde feel of being written by competing camps of urgency and complacency. On the one hand, the IEA warns that global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable, and that an energy revolution is needed. On the other hand, they say that oil is available for world needs for  the next several decades, with sufficient investment. On the third hand, they say that the world needs to bring on line the equivalent of six new Saudi Arabias in the next 22 years--an almost magical feat.

More under the fold.

(I first examined the falling price of oil in August. The price of oil has dropped further, so it's time for another look.)

Someone told me with relief recently that gasoline is $2.99 a gallon. I was reminded of an editorial cartoon in late 2005 or early 2006, showing someone filling up before and after hurricane Katrina. In both pictures, a guy holding a gas nozzle is looking at the pump and exclaiming, "Gas is $2.50 a gallon!" Before Katrina, he has a look of outrage on his face. After Katrina, he wears a broad grin.

Lower gas prices aren't enough to produce many broad grins these days, against the current economic turmoil and the widespread predictions that the economic downturn is likely to get worse and last years. Still, the drop in oil prices is reinforcing some people's beliefs that oil price rises were a speculative bubble.

As with bubbles, the price of oil has gone up and then back down, though only back down a bit. It looks to me like supply and demand are sufficient to explain the price fluctuations.

First, let's look at the big picture: The price of oil is still high.

Shelburne Farms apparently has a policy of not allowing bicycles on the property, or at least groups of bicycles. The Shelburne Farms hostess told the visiting HPV Burlington Bike Fest group on Saturday that she turned down the group's request to visit when a representative first called them. They think the roads are too narrow for bicycles at Shelburne Farms. (I can't figure that one out, since cars are wider than bicycles, but never mind...)

The first caller told HPV Burlington Bike Fest chief organizer Phil Hammerslough what happened, and Phil called the Shelburne Farms hostess. "I know," she said, "You want to know why we don't allow bicycles here."

"No," replied Phil. "I want you to understand that we're not bicycles, we're velomobiles. I'll send you pictures." Twenty minutes later, she called Phil back and said, "Yes, of course, the velomobiles are welcome here." 

And so I joined the dozens of human-powered vehicle (HPV) riders (a.k.a. cyclists) who rode from City Hall Park to Shelburne Farms and back on Saturday, as one part of the HPV Bike Fest. Photos and more explanation below the fold...

Two weeks ago, I described on a syndicated weekly radio commentary, Peak Oil Check-In, a situation that wasn't getting much play in the national media: regional shortages of gasoline and other refined products in the wake of hurricanes Gustav and Ike. This last week, the national media paid some attention, even though the larger story of the meltdown of the US financial sector is (rightfully) dominating headlines.

Pat Murphy, producer of the much-admired video, The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, will be on the air with me tomorrow, Wednesday, on Equal Time Radio on WDEV (96.1/96.5 FM, 550 AM) Waterbury-Montpelier, 1:05 - 2:00 pm.

We'll be talking about his new book, Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change. From the book's description:

Plan C explores the risks inherent in trying to continue our energy-intensive lifestyle. Using dirtier fossil fuels (Plan A) or switching to renewable energy sources (Plan B) allows people to remain complacent in the face of potential global catastrophe. Dramatic lifestyle change is the only way to begin to create a sustainable, equitable world.

Also joining us will be State Senator Ginny Lyons, chair of the Natural Resources and Energy Committee, to talk about what Plan C might look like in Vermont. And at the beginning of the show, if all goes well, I'll describe what it was like to ride from Montpelier to Waterbury on an electric bicycle.

Please consider tuning in at 1:05 pm tomorrow!

By Jane Dwinell

Ever wonder what it would be like to live in a really small space with just the basics? Ever wonder what it would be like to do this with your sweetheart? Could you stand to be together in such tight quarters, doing all the activities of daily living along with all the fun things you enjoy? Well, if you have a hobby that takes up a lot of space or needs tons of equipment (or you don't want to be that close with your loved one), living in 250 square feet may not be for you. But it is for me.

by Jane Dwinell and Dana Dwinell-Yardley

Worried about high gas prices affecting everything from food to fun? Wondering what to do about your summer vacation? Try having one close to home. There are so many things to do in Vermont — so many reasons people from everywhere else to want to visit here. It’s your turn to discover Vermont.

The story of the Douglas Administration's delay in the purchase of new passenger rail cars that I broke last week and updated last Saturday continues to spread through the Vermont media.

The Brattleboro Reformer covered the story on Wednesday, and they talked to the director of the Vermont Rail Advocacy Network, who points out the importance of moving expeditiously on the rail cars:

But rail advocates say Gov. James Douglas has simply prioritized roads over trains.

"Perhaps the real issue is that Gov. Douglas has proposed (and the Legislature approved) issuing $10 million in bonds for road construction projects," said Christopher Parker, executive director of a new nonprofit group called the Vermont Rail Advocacy Network, in an e-mail. "The problem with the delay is that it risks losing a $2 million grant from Amtrak."

He said the plan, if ever implemented, would be to add runs in the morning and at night, when traffic is heaviest on Interstate 91.

Bruce Johnson has also written a story on the passenger rail cars; look for it in this Sunday's Times Argus / Rutland Herald. (UPDATE: The story is here.)

The Reformer also published an editorial on Thursday, comparing the train service in Brattleboro in 1938 with 2008. The nickel version: There were six departures from Brattleboro to New York City in 1938, vs. one today. And there's only a 25% chance that you'll get to New York within 30 minutes of the scheduled arrival time today. Going east and west from Brattleboro by train is difficult or impossible now, too.

I haven't found answers to the questions outstanding at the end of my previous post. Maybe next week...

UPDATE: Nancy Schulz, Executive Director of the Vermont Bicycle and Pedestrian Coalition, sent out the following email today:

VBPC member and volunteer David Cain is taking the initiative to gather information and supporters to address the issue of bicycles on Amtrak trains. A major obstacle is Amtrak's refusal to allow bikes on their trains to and from New Haven, CT that make connections with the Vermonter. If this specific issue is one that energizes you, then please consider contacting Dave directly to find out how you can help. You can reach Dave by sending an email message and please "cc" me. Thanks.

My Thursday's post on the Douglas Administration's decision to delay purchases of new Amtrak cars has stirred things up some. I started getting some calls returned Friday, and John Dillon of Vermont Public Radio began digging into the story. Dillon's story aired Friday afternoon.

Over the course of the day, my understanding of the story changed quite a bit. And there were quite a few calls among the highest levels of Vermont state government, as the various actors scrambled to get on the same page.

As I explained Thursday, VTrans Operations Director Sam Lewis told the Vermont Rail Advisory Council earlier in the week that the Douglas administration was waiting to move forward on purchasing new Amtrak trains until the Debt Affordability Committee reviewed the purchase in October. The cars will save the state money, burn less fuel, and allow two departures a day for the Vermonter run from White River Junction and southward.

When asked at the meeting who flagged the Amtrak car purchase for review by the Debt Affordability Committee, VTrans Operations Director Sam Lewis said it was the Secretary of Administration (Mike Smith) and the Secretary of Transportation (Neale Lunderville).

John Zicconi, spokesperson for the Agency of Transportation, called me Friday morning, returning a call I'd made before posting Thursday to Mike Smith. Zicconi's explanation was consistent with Lewis' comments. He explained that the Amtrak car purchase would require the $1.8 million in bonding that was in the 2010 budget. If the state decided after its 3-year trial period that it wanted to keep the cars, it would require additional bonding to pay for the $18+ million purchase. The Debt Affordability Committee reviews bonding decisions, he explained, and if there are more projects that require bonding than the state can afford to take on in debt, the Debt Affordability Committee makes an advisory statement about how to spend the money.

I asked him whether it would have been an option for the administration to just buy the new trains and present the Debt Affordability Committee with a fait accompli. He replied, "We think it's wise to let the Debt Affordability Committee weigh in."

Meanwhile, Zicconi explained, VTrans can proceed with preparations for the Amtrak train purchase. For example, they needed to perform a new cost-benefit analysis on the Amtrak purchase to present to the Debt Affordability Committee, so they could have the information in their deliberations. "We need to get our ducks in a row so we can answer their questions," he said.

Friday afternoon, quite a different story emerged.